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Superbowl XLIV Preview

February 6, 2010

Superbowl XLIV is almost upon us. The Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints are nearly ready to do battle on the grass turf of what is now called Sun Life Stadium in South Florida, just outside of Miami. Both teams got out to great starts this year, 14-0 for the Colts and 13-0 for the Saints. Both teams, surprisingly, failed to win another regular season game having clinched home field advantage in the playoffs.

A multitude of factors play into this contest.

  • the Colts won every game they tried to win this year
  • the Saints had the best offense in the NFL — the Colts didn’t face an offense this potent during the season and certainly not in the playoffs
  • Colts QB Peyton Manning is at the top of his game and looks unstoppable
  • Saints QB Drew Brees played very poorly in the second half of the NFC Championship against the Vikings
  • Colts DE Dwight Freeney has torn ligaments in his ankle and will not be 100%, depleting the Colts’ pass rush
  • the Saints needed 5 turnovers and overtime to barely beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship
  • the Colts finished last in the NFL in rushing
  • the Saints defence depends on generating turnovers to be successful
  • the Colts have Superbowl experience
  • the Saints are playing the “Team of Destiny” card
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  • the Colts needed fourth quarter comebacks 7 times this season to win
  • the Saints lost against the Dallas Cowboys in a game they tried to win

    I found it interesting that the Colts opened as 5 point favorites, with the line quickly moving to 5 and a half. Today, the line moved back to 5 as betting action on the Saints has come in.

    The Saints are going to need to generate turnovers, get a lead, and hope they can outscore the Colts the rest of the way. If it comes down to Manning having the ball and enough time on the clock to drive for the winning score, I think the Saints will have to drown their sorrows on Bourbon Street.

    I think the Saints can run and pass on the Colts. Equally, I think the Colts can move the ball on the Saints defense. The key will be which team is able to generate turnovers.

    The Saints also possess an X-Factor in Reggie Bush. He has shown flashes of brilliance in the playoffs and a long play on a punt return, reception or rush attempt could tilt the game in New Orleans’ favor.

    Considering the matchups, I think this game is likely to be pretty high scoring, say, 31-27. Who will win? Barring early turnovers by the Saints, I think it is a toss-up. Let’s go with the New Orleans Saints to outscore the Indianapolis Colts and take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

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    Paul